Britain's bitter sweet Davis Cup win
(Murray) has given up talking to the LTA about the future of the game as he says it’s a waste of time
(Murray) has given up talking to the LTA about the future of the game as he says it’s a waste of time
The Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London is closing in on the end of the round robin stage, but it’s already shaping up to be one of the most exciting end of season events for many years.
has Federer finally managed to waken some of Novak’s mental demons?
First off there was Roger Federer dispatching World No 1, Novak Djokovic in straight sets. This was more than merely an upset. It put an end to a 23-match win streak by Djokovic, his last loss being to Federer in the Cincinnati final at the end of August. It also snapped Djokovic's 38-match win streak indoors, which included winning the Tour Finals for the past three years and defeating Federer each time along the way. Perhaps even more notable is that Federer’s victory prevented Djokovic from getting the upper hand in their career head-to-head meetings for the first time ever with Federer moving ahead 22-21. In a season when Djokovic has been utterly dominant, has Federer finally managed to waken some of Novak’s mental demons? Everyone other player will be hoping so!
If that wasn’t enough, Rafael Nadal went out the next day and crushed World No 2 Andy Murray, after perviously dispatching of Stan Wawrinka in a similar fashion. Casual observers of the game might not raise an eyebrow as Nadal and Murray have also had a competitive rivalry in recent years. However, Nadal has been a shadow of his former self this season. The biggest slump of his career has been typified by a barren clay court swing, which throughout his career has been the bread and butter of his seasons. His confidence has been shot, regularly losing to players well below him in the rankings, even falling to a player outside the top-100 at Wimbledon. Murray on the other hand has had a strong season, including defeating Nadal on his beloved clay the only other time they met this season. Murray has been complaining about the transition he has had to make between the clay courts he has been practicing on for Britain’s upcoming Davis Cup final and the medium-paced hardcourt that the Tour Finals is being played on. Regardless of whether this gripe has any real significance, Nadal’s emphatic victory has shaken things up.
So Federer and Nadal (from different groups) are through to the semi-finals. Both have topped their groups meaning they won't meet each other in the semis. Djokovic has made it through as the second qualifier in Stan Smith Group after defeating Berdych, so he will face Nadal in the semis. The second player through in Ilie Nastase Group will be the winner of Wawrinka versus Murray, an interesting matchup given their form so far. At the time of writing the pair are about to head onto court so as you're reading this the final four will be set. I'll back Federer to go through to the final and, despite Nadal's inspiring form, I think Djokovic will meet him there for a rematch. If that plays out you can be sure Novak will be eager to seize the opportunity to level their head-to-head once again and remind the world who is the past king and who is the reigning king!
When I ask a student what the most important shot in the game is I expect them to answer with the serve or the return, since the serve is the first shot of every rally while the return is the first chance the returner has to neutralise the server's first strike advantage. Taking a look at the World No 1's serve and return stats, particularly on second serves, seems to confirm this.
Novak crushes it on his second serve, topping the list of second serve points won (60%)
Djokovic essentially turns most players’ second serve into a weapon of his own. In 2015 he has won 60% of points started with his opponents’ second serves, more than any other player. The top servers average 60%-70% of first serves in play. This means that, even for the best servers, for the 30-40% of points on their serve that are started with a second serve, they can expect to lose most of them when playing Novak.
You might say, well a good sever who is averaging around 65% of first serves in play and is winning the vast majority, let’s say at least 75%, won’t be bothered by losing most of their second serve points. Maybe not against most players. But Djokovic, being the returning machine that he is, claims 33% of points on his opponents’ first serves as well (bettered only by Ferrer). Some quick maths on these aggregate stats tells us that overall Djokovic can expect to win over 40% of points against a strong serving opponent. Weaker servers, or those missing more first serves than usual due to the pressure of Novak’s return game, well they won’t stand a chance!
So what about his serve? We know he’s not the very best server right? Well he certainly doesn’t have the biggest first serve, his position at No 20 on the most aces list testifies to that. And he’s not the most effective either at No 17 on the list for percentage of first serve points won. But his stat of 75% isn’t too shabby either. And this stat only refers to WHEN the point is started with a first serve, so when coupled with his high percentage of first serves in (66%, which is the tour’s sixth best) he’s going to get his fair share of easy points on serve.
Surely his opponents’ best chances will be on his second serve then? Think again! Novak crushes it on his second serve, topping the list of second serve points won (60%), well clear of the serving master himself, Federer in second place. This is probably the least known strength in Novak’s game since the second serve doesn’t seem worthy of much attention. But it’s a crucial factor in Novak’s dominance that has been a mainstay of his repertoire throughout his career. As Pete Sampras once said “You’re only as good as your second serve."